In our last blog post we explored the volume of residential development across Eastern U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Once we normalize for land area, we quickly see that residential development is booming in Florida MSAs. According to the U.S. Census Bureau “Florida was home to four of the nation’s top five fastest-growing metropolitan statistical areas and three of the top 10 that gained the largest number of people from 2022 to 2023, reflecting continued population growth across the South.”

Past 5 years (2019-2023)

·       With the exception of Raleigh, NC (29), The following Florida MSAs ranked in the top 5 for homes developed per sq. mi in the past 5 years: Tampa (29), The Villages (28), North Port (26), Cape Coral (23).

Active Development

·       The top 5 MSAs for homes being actively developed/sq. mi are all in Florida: Punta Gorda (89), North Port (57), Homosassa Springs (49), Cape Coral (35), & Orlando (32). These MSAs are actively developing more homes/sq. mi than have been completed in the past 5 years.

Future/Planned

·       The top 5 MSAs for future/planned homes to be built/sq. mi are also all in Florida: The Villages (174), Orlando (86), Port St. Lucie (73), North Port (71), Tampa (62)

Migration: Placer’s Mobile Location Data

·       Florida, just behind Arizona, is experiencing the second most net population growth (0.16%) when comparing February 2024 to the previous month. When observing Florida’s overall estimated population change over the past 12 months (February 2023-February 2024), significant MoM population growth has been occurring since about July 2023.

Retail: Chain change over time (January 2023 – March 2024)

·       Using data from ChainXY for all chains that have been tracked over the past 5 years, Florida has experienced a positive net change in retail/restaurant chain openings by 2,235 resulting in a 3% growth in openings across all chain retail categories. This growth is not uniform across all businesses but is specific to certain chain categories.

·       By analyzing chain trends by category over the same period, we see the following chain categories experience the most openings: Auto Service, Parts, Tires, Senior Living, Home Improvement/Building Supplies, Discount Stores, & Convenience Stores.

·       Conversely, we can understand those chain categories that are contracting; experiencing the most closings: Communications, Insurance, Gas Stations, Shipping, Drug Stores/Pharmacies.

·       Notable chains that have experienced significant growth in the state include A place for mom, a senior living chain (+1,423), O’Reilly Certified Auto Repair (+909), Dollar General (+193), & Starbucks (+128).